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Central china securities believes that the grasp of the operation and investment of the A-share market in 2025 should at least follow two major trends at the macro level: (1) the "Trump 2.0" policy from the outside, especially the intensity and progress of tariff increase; (2) The strength and continuous progress of domestic countercyclical control policies. In terms of industry configuration, we can focus on four main lines: (1) new productivity-related sectors such as self-control of science and technology and acceleration of domestic substitution, such as frontier technical fields such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, new chemical materials and related equipment segmentation fields; (2) consumption and infrastructure sectors related to promoting domestic demand, such as smart driving product industrial chain, smart home, pet products, ships, construction machinery, etc.; (3) Supply optimization and demand recovery have led to an inflection point in the prosperity of the industry, such as photovoltaic and lithium batteries; (4) Theme concepts related to deepening the reform of the capital market and promoting listed companies to enhance their investment value, such as mergers and acquisitions, cash dividends and market value management, such as construction, coal, transportation, banking and other industries with concentrated net losses or low valuation characteristics.[Institutions are optimistic about the three major directions of 2025! 】What do institutions think of the trend of A shares next year?

What do you think of the A-share market in 2025?How to get A shares in 2025? What are the opportunities? Institutions see it this way.According to the strategy report of Guojin Securities, compared with previous "spring restlessness" markets, such as 2006, 2009, 2016 and 2019, there will be a high probability of "spring restlessness" in 2025. Specific reasons: (1) At present, the domestic economy tends to improve, and it is expected that the current domestic fundamental improvement cycle will last at least until the first quarter of 2025; (2) Effective market flow tends to improve; (3) Inflation has not risen significantly, the discount rate remains low, and the turning point of PPI may be in July next year, and the fastest turning point will be in September next year; (4) The valuation is reasonable or even at a low level; (5)ERP is at a stage high point, and has more room for downward convergence-as of November 20, 2024, both EPR and "stock-debt yield difference" indicate that A-share risk appetite has much room for improvement.

According to the report on investment strategy of A-share market in 2025 released by central china securities, the A-share market will reverse the downward trend for three consecutive years under the comprehensive effect of economic and policy interweaving, and in 2024, it will come out of a small market with two waves of first suppression and then promotion. In 2025, it is expected that the focus of the long-short game in the market will focus on whether domestic macro-policies protect the stock market to maintain confidence and stabilize expectations. Considering the policy intention reflected in the underlying logic of "striving to boost the capital market", the main line of further deepening the reform policy of the capital market will focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and make efforts to deploy in promoting mergers and acquisitions and improving investors' returns. It is expected that the A-share market will generally maintain a volatile upward trend.According to the A-share strategy report for 2025 released by CDB Securities recently, the stock market is expected to play a "positive feedback" function. On the basis of continuous efforts to improve the quality of the policy side, "expected management" and "market value management" will play a more positive role in the operation of the market. It is expected that there will be room for further improvement in management in 2025, and China's capital market may maintain a certain degree of activity; Market value management of listed companies in the strategic dimension is helpful to stabilize market expectations. In the first quarter of 2025, the market may fluctuate to find the bottom, and after the disclosure of the annual report and the first quarterly report, it can be more positive and optimistic about the market. Especially in the context of downward pressure on global stock markets, China's assets are expected to be allocated by international capital.CDB Securities believes that it should closely follow the market orientation of "supporting the superior and limiting the inferior" and pay attention to the A-share core asset index. After a long-term adjustment, the market growth index is expected to gain excess returns in 2025. Look for target industries through factors such as low valuation, future inflation expectations and green economy, and pay attention to capital-driven themes such as mergers and acquisitions. Commodity prices have a long-term upward momentum, but they may still fluctuate in the short term.